ItalyHome team
FranceAwayHow Can They Win?
France lead in 18 of the 21 categories we compared. On paper they are a step ahead, but in football the numbers only point the way. The most critical key for Italy: must hit the target more often. For France: must score the first goal.
Balance of power
The two teams in 7 key areas
In how many of the 21 categories is each team ahead? 1 categories are level. The home team's home matches and the away team's away matches are used (up to 10 matches).
Key figures
Like-for-like comparison
21 categories · the stronger side is coloured
How can Italy win?
5 keys · what the data highlights most
Must hit the target more often
Italy take 13.7 shots per match, 5.7 of which hit the target. France, meanwhile, allow their opponents 3.9 shots on target per match. About 32 of every 100 shots on target end up as goals.
Must start the match fast
Italy score 1 goals per match in first halves. When leading at half-time, their win rate is 50%. A good start makes the rest of the match easier.
Must score the first goal
Italy won 2 of the 4 matches in which they scored first. France, meanwhile, took points in only 0 of the 2 matches in which they fell behind. So the first goal of the match could be the key that opens the door for Italy.
Must exploit the opponent's weakness
Italy score 1.8 goals per match at home. France, meanwhile, concede 1.1 goals per match away. The opposing defence doesn't concede easily, so every chance has to be taken.
Must use the wings and set pieces
Italy win 4.5 corners per match. France concede 4.1 corners per match to their opponents. Pressure down the wings and set pieces are an important weapon here.
How can France win?
5 keys · what the data highlights most
Must score the first goal
France won 8 of the 8 matches in which they scored first. Italy, meanwhile, took points in only 0 of the 2 matches in which they fell behind. So the first goal of the match could be the key that opens the door for France.
Must push in the second half
France score more of their goals in the second half: 0.9 per match in the first half, 1.3 in the second. Italy concede 1.2 goals per match in second halves. Being patient and saving energy for the last half hour could pay off.
Must keep finding ways to score
France score 2.2 goals per match away. Italy, meanwhile, concede 1.8 goals per match at home. The opposing defence concedes goals; being productive here makes things easier.
Must hit the target more often
France take 14.6 shots per match, 6.2 of which hit the target. Italy, meanwhile, allow their opponents 4.5 shots on target per match. About 35 of every 100 shots on target end up as goals.
Must use the wings and set pieces
France win 6.3 corners per match. Italy concede 7 corners per match to their opponents. Pressure down the wings and set pieces are an important weapon here.
When are the goals scored?
15-minute slots in recent matches
Goals scored
Goals conceded
First goal and halves
how the flow of the match affects the score
Italy
France
From shot to goal
average per match: shots → shots on target → goals
Form
last 10 matches · league, cup and Europe together
Italy4G · 3B · 3MFrance7G · 1B · 2MPoints accumulated in the last 10 matches
Final word
France lead in 18 of the 21 categories we compared. On paper they are a step ahead, but in football the numbers only point the way. The most critical key for Italy: must hit the target more often. For France: must score the first goal.
After the match we check which of these keys came true on our How Did They Win? page.
This content is statistical analysis only and is not betting advice. Prepared by: Yaşar Kenan Şeftalicioğlu · analiz.futbol